How can we use the novel capacities of large language models (LLMs) in empirical research? And how can we do so while accounting for their limitations, which are themselves only poorly understood? We develop an econometric framework to answer this question that distinguishes between two types of empirical tasks. Using LLMs for prediction problems (including hypothesis generation) is valid under one condition: no ``leakage'' between the LLM's training dataset and the researcher's sample. No leakage can be ensured by using open-source LLMs with documented training data and published weights. Using LLM outputs for estimation problems to automate the measurement of some economic concept (expressed either by some text or from human subjects) requires the researcher to collect at least some validation data: without such data, the errors of the LLM's automation cannot be assessed and accounted for. As long as these steps are taken, LLM outputs can be used in empirical research with the familiar econometric guarantees we desire. Using two illustrative applications to finance and political economy, we find that these requirements are stringent; when they are violated, the limitations of LLMs now result in unreliable empirical estimates. Our results suggest the excitement around the empirical uses of LLMs is warranted -- they allow researchers to effectively use even small amounts of language data for both prediction and estimation -- but only with these safeguards in place.

Advances in large language models have notably enhanced the efficiency of information extraction from unstructured and semi-structured data sources. As these technologies become integral to various applications, establishing an objective measure for the quality of information extraction becomes imperative. However, the scarcity of labeled data presents significant challenges to this endeavor. In this paper, we introduce an automatic framework to assess the quality of the information extraction/retrieval and its completeness. The framework focuses on information extraction in the form of entity and its properties. We discuss how to handle the input/output size limitations of the large language models and analyze their performance when extracting the information. In particular, we introduce scores to evaluate the quality of the extraction and provide an extensive discussion on how to interpret them.

A major driver of AI products today is the fact that new skills emerge in language models when their parameter set and training corpora are scaled up. This phenomenon is poorly understood, and a mechanistic explanation via mathematical analysis of gradient-based training seems difficult. The current paper takes a different approach, analysing emergence using the famous (and empirical) Scaling Laws of LLMs and a simple statistical framework. Contributions include: (a) A statistical framework that relates cross-entropy loss of LLMs to competence on the basic skills that underlie language tasks. (b) Mathematical analysis showing that the Scaling Laws imply a strong form of inductive bias that allows the pre-trained model to learn very efficiently. We informally call this {\em slingshot generalization} since naively viewed it appears to give competence levels at skills that violate usual generalization theory. (c) A key example of slingshot generalization, that competence at executing tasks involving $k$-tuples of skills emerges essentially at the same scaling and same rate as competence on the elementary skills themselves.

Query-based document summarization aims to extract or generate a summary of a document which directly answers or is relevant to the search query. It is an important technique that can be beneficial to a variety of applications such as search engines, document-level machine reading comprehension, and chatbots. Currently, datasets designed for query-based summarization are short in numbers and existing datasets are also limited in both scale and quality. Moreover, to the best of our knowledge, there is no publicly available dataset for Chinese query-based document summarization. In this paper, we present QBSUM, a high-quality large-scale dataset consisting of 49,000+ data samples for the task of Chinese query-based document summarization. We also propose multiple unsupervised and supervised solutions to the task and demonstrate their high-speed inference and superior performance via both offline experiments and online A/B tests. The QBSUM dataset is released in order to facilitate future advancement of this research field.